All three US wheat futures contracts pushed higher. The reversal tending to support the current fundamentals developing for both new and old crop wheat across both hemispheres. The move higher in Dec24 SRWW futures at Chicago more than covers the previous sessions decline. Many analyst are now moving towards the camp that predicts SRWW futures to push above 600c/bu in the near term, some even suggesting that 700c/bu is a possibility as we move towards the spring in the northern hemisphere.
There are some slightly bullish fundamentals at play but they are a combination of new and old crop influences. Frosts in Australia and dry weather in Argentina will influence world ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop. Dry weather in Russia is delaying winter wheat sowing or seeing sowing being completed into a dry seed bed, will have more of an influence on 2025-26 wheat production, and new seasons ending stocks, if predicted losses are realised.
This is the job of a futures market though, isn’t it, to give price direction on possible future outcomes being determined by current or predicted fundamentals. It’s hard to believe kids, but yes futures markets can do this, they are more than just a play ground, or a money parking facility, for the funds. This still has months to play out though, the funds generally decide if they are buyers or sellers in the Jan / Feb period.

The 1% decline in the AUD against the USD was good to see this morning. The punters are tipping another US Fed reduction in rates in their November meeting. Meanwhile the RBA appear happy to hang us out to dry into a nice crispy mess that’s easily sweep under the carpet. The punters are still predicting the yuan to implode, as they have been for a long time, this weighed on the AUD along with lower Aussie inflation and a slowing domestic CPI.

The combination of the weaker AUD and the firmer US futures markets and steady to firmer global cash wheat values should help prices locally today.