10/1/25 Prices

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A short session in the US as the country shows its respect for ex president Jimmy Carter after passing at the age of 100.
The USDA will release the January World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report tomorrow. US wheat futures trended lower in anticipation of little bullish news in this months WASDE report. The report will generally reflect late November and early December data, so may not be considering the recent uptick in Russian wheat sales. The report may well run the risk of being ignored very quickly unless the data shows some surprises, but this is not expected.

Overnight saw international wheat futures generally trend lower. Chicago SRWW and HRWW futures shed value, dragging US spring wheat futures down. Paris milling wheat was mixed, generally flat to lower, London feed wheat was down across the board. Chicago corn and soybeans both closed in the green but not convincingly. Once again Paris rapeseed was the shining light, gaining 4.25 nearby and 3.50 for the May slot. New crop rapeseed futures were also higher, the Feb 26 slot gaining 3.50 to close at 483, but this is 50 under the current Feb 25 settlement for those thinking about new crop acres here.
International cash wheat values were mixed but generally a little lower out of the PNW and the Black Sea.

Domestic wheat prices in India have surged in recent months as supply of milling wheat continue to shrink. Reuters report that prices have surged 35% since April. This is after the Indian government reduced stock limits for trader in an attempt to push more wheat onto the market and flatten prices. This is likely to see government stocks continue to be released onto the domestic market, unless there are issues with the supply and quality of these stocks. Currently the gov is selling 100kt per week but this appears to be insufficient. The consumers are now questioning why there has not been more released onto the domestic market when official data shows stocks as high as 20mt. Is the government keeping prices high on purpose or are stocks low. Harvest is due to start in March.

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