Soybean and corn futures at Chicago bounced back after the previous session saw some profit taking temper the move higher. Neither product was convincingly higher, soybeans in the May slot closed up 9.5c/bu (AUD$5.55/t). The lent a little support to both Winnipeg canola futures and Paris rapeseed futures, the later showing gains of just €0.50 / tonne nearby and €1.50 / tonne in the May slot. Palm oil futures pushed a little higher, the May slot up AUD$6.52 / tonne, this also helped the oilseeds. Crude oil was lower.
The technical traders are continuing to talk both Chicago corn and soybean futures higher. Wet weather in Brazil is hampering harvest there but that is not that unusual. Looking at a 14 day anomaly chart for Mato Grosso, the main soybeans state in Brazil, indicates if anything the last 14 days have been a smidge drier than normal apart from the far east of the state. Argentina on the other hand is exceptionally drier than average with much of BA seeing less than 40% of average rain over the last 14 days.
Russia has seen some unseasonably high mid winter temperatures. Parts of the Volga Valley were as much as 10C warmer than average, resulting in a loss of snow cover in some locations. This leaves winter wheat open to winter kill if the weather turns cold prior to further snow falling. The seven day forecast for much of western Russia is not cold enough to produce winter kill. The Volga Valley is forecast to see average minimums down to -10C or lower. It is generally accepted that winter kill will occur at less than -20C. Those temperatures are likely across the Russian spring wheat region that gets sown in the spring, but not the winter wheat regions at this stage.
Argentina is said to be reducing their export tariff on wheat from 12% to 9% as of June 30th. This is unlikely to have much of an impact on the marketing of this years crop but may influence sowing area of the new crop. Soybean export tariff will also be reduced from 33% to 26% which may create more competition for the US from their S.American friends.