Prices 19/10/18

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A combination of poor weekly US grain exports and a better weather outlook for harvesting the last of the summer crops saw US futures weaker across the board. Soybeans lead the demise of the oilseed market shedding 22c at Chicago.
US corn exports were a miserable 380kt, soybeans were worse with just 295kt leaving the US last week.  Wheat was the only one that looked half decent at 476kt and besting last week but still not enough to stop spill over pressure from the row crops.

Both Paris rapeseed futures and ICE canola futures were caught up in the weaker US soybean futures market and made losses for the session closing at E376 for the Feb slot at Paris and at C$497.7 at Winnipeg.

Fears of production problems in western Australia have moved from the level of frost damage, to conditions being too wet. With warmer weather creating ideal conditions for a large number of leaf diseases yield estimates may start to slide as leaf matter to draw on at grain fill is depleted quicker than normal.

Argentina is just starting harvest now with around 1.2% of their wheat crop in the bin. Yields have been lower than expected with both dry weather and frost a major factor in the lower yields. The consensus appears to be lower than expected yields across the board.

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