Prices 26/10/18

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Poor weekly US export sales killed corn and wheat futures in overnight trade. Coming in below trade estimates the market had nowhere to go and drifted lower throughout the session.
IGC data didn’t help, although world corn production was left unchanged the IGC did increase world wheat production by 12mt up to 728.8 million tonnes (USDA 730.92).  The net increase mostly due to increases in China, seriously, increases in the EU and Russia were countered by further decreases in Argentina and Australia.
A frosty October in parts of Argentina pruned wheat yield estimates reducing production there down to about 19.2mt, still a large crop by their standards.
There seems to be a few more international wheat tenders popping up this week, not that the US will see much business from them as most are Middle East or N.African. Egypt are back in for 115kt of milling wheat, tenders close Friday. It will be interesting to see if they can pick it up cheaper than the last tender.
Offer values of US wheat continue to fall at both the Gulf and the PNW with lower grade milling wheat off US$3.00 to US$4.00 overnight. HRW out of the Gulf is offered at around US$240, so roughly US$278 to say Algeria. This compares to about US$257, the average tender value in the last big buy from that part of the world. That’s about 57c/bu difference. Are we heading to 460c/bu futures, I doubt it, but anything is possible on this stage.

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