More talk of China buying US soybeans overnight. The official number is 300kt but some say as much as 840kt were booked. With news of this magnitude one might expect to see the market rally significantly but alas Chicago futures smashed out a massive gain of just 2.75c/bu (AUD$1.40) in the March soybean contract.  These orders come on top of the 1.43mt purchased last week. It should also be noted that the USDA have also confirmed the second soybean subsidy will be paid to US growers.
ICE canola futures did manage to close higher on the news by about the same value as bean futures rallied.
Chicago wheat futures were flat to softer with little new news to stimulate the bulls. Increasing US exports are keeping the punters optimistic though but technically the market is overbought and may struggle to push higher unless US export volume persists above or about last week’s level. If weekly export volume does drop off don’t be surprised if futures try and test the 500c/bu mark in early January.

Weather conditions in the northern hemisphere are generally benign and are of little threat to winter wheat at present. Currency and politics combined with the export pace of Russia and the US will be the key drivers for the next 6 – 8 weeks.
Russian wheat exports which were 40% ahead of last year’s pace in early September are now back to just 4% ahead after a recent slow- down. Black Sea values are higher week on week with FOB offers around US$238. Interesting to note barley offers are almost identical to wheat offers in the Black Sea ports.