ICE Canadian canola futures found some much needed fundamental support with StatsCan dropping production for 2019 to 18.65mt, that’s about 1mt less than the punters were initially backing before the wet harvest took its toll. The prospects of shrinking Chinese demand also saw fewer acres sown, a trend that is likely to play out again in 2020.
StatsCan also pruned the wheat production number from 32.5mt to 32.45mt, not exactly market changing data there but it was better than an increase like the punters were backing. Barley production was increased 10% to 10.38mt. More bad news for farmers in Australia trying to export.

With the USDA World Ag Supply and Demand report due out on the 10th we see a few estimates starting to hit the emails. General expectations are for reductions in wheat to Canada, Australia, Russia and Argentina with potential rises to the EU. The market is basically factoring in a fall in ending stocks of around 2mt to about 286mt, still too high.
The real effort for the USDA might be determining regional exports. For instance Russia is thought to have shipped between 600kt & 900kt of wheat into Kazakhstan over the last few months, there’s simply no way to confirm. Kazakhstan did have a poor season this year so it could well be towards the high end of the estimate.