US futures values although slightly lower for the week do appear to be consolidating around these numbers. Technically the December soft red wheat and hard red wheat contracts at Chicago are looking a little oversold so we may see some support creep back into wheat in the new month.
Weather forecast for the US are generally benign so little offer fundamental reason to rally, or to fall in the short term. Little to no rain is expected across the US and Canadian durum belt in the next 5 days so we should start to see wheat tour data being debunked or verified by next weekend.
One of the first articles I opened this morning had the heading “Solid gains for durum prices as heat and hail hurt Canada’s crop”. The story is using crop conditions ratings released by Saskatchewan officials as its backbone. This week’s ratings halved from just two weeks ago. If you use historical yields to determine a likely yield this year we come up with less than a tonne to the acre.
The report also showed a decline in canola rating. Looking at both durum and canola values in Canada we see canola has benefited from the report whilst durum values are basically unchanged….durum, the chickpea of the wheat world. The article suggests monthly rises of US$19 in US values and US$33 in EU values, then why is our local price back $10.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/solid-gains-for-durum-prices-as-heat-and-hail-hurt-canadas-crop—10909.html