One commentaries opening line reads “when panic fizzles prices sizzle”, I’m not sure if this punter was a rap “artist” in a previous life but in all honesty the recovery was nice and probably expected considering the tariff debacle with China is only sabre rattling not actual law at present but to call it sizzling hot, yeah, na.
So the punters believe the tariffs are not an immediate threat. Let’s see how the “not an immediate threat” rolls across into export sales over the next few weeks. Corn and soybeans are expected to be the two grains affected the most but looking at US export sales of these two grains to China show they have already been affected. US soybeans are cheaper than Brazilian beans but Chinese business is still going to S.America.

Another cold snap in the US should see snow fall continue to delay spring field work while the drought across the HRW belt shows only some slight relief for SE Kansas and eastern Oklahoma over next week. Keep an eye on the crop condition rating report early next week. The US isn’t the only region seeing less than ideal weather for winter cereals. France reduced the condition of both durum and winter wheat in this weeks report and the Ukraine continue to see delays for spring sown crops. And then there is Australia, we need to see some significant general rain in a bit of a hurry here too.
Look for a firmer day with global futures and a weaker AUD lending a hand to domestic prices here.