Prices 12/10/18

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The USDA report was basically bullish corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. More bearish US wheat than anything so just remember that US wheat futures are US wheat price indicators first and then global wheat price indicators second.

A quick look at the WASDE report shows world wheat production is estimated a little lower at 730.92mt compared to 733mt back in September. This allowed all world wheat stocks to fall from 261.29mt to 260.18mt. Slow US exports did see US stocks actually climb from 25.45mt to 26.03mt which is what the market there considered bearish.
Chinese ending stocks are estimated at 136.12mt of wheat, almost 48% of total world ending stocks.
I’m not convinced they have got the Aussie numbers right but by reducing production from 20mt to 18.5mt and exports by 1mt they have it closer.
The USDA pulled Russian production back 1mt to 70mt but left the rest of the balance sheet unchanged for Russian. The only other adjustment for the Black Sea region was a slight adjustment lower for Ukraine feed wheat usage.
From wheat’s perspective the report is fairly yawn worthy.

Canadian durum values continue to slip away with cash bids in SW Saskatchewan now around C$212 / tonne ex farm.

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