With Chinese feed regulations changing to take into consideration a lower import volume of soybeans we may well see the Chinese come in search of a viable alternative.
The question to ask is will that alternative simply be a meal or beans from S.America or could it be another grain like Russian feed wheat. Russia has continued to reject claims that export volume will be reduced as they move into 2019 but they haven’t said anything about what grades of wheat will make up that volume. After a wet harvest across parts of Russia it is well documented that a large volume of feed wheat was produced there this year. We may also see increased interest in Aussie sorghum, I favour the later.

Friday’s momentum in US wheat futures ran out of steam at Chicago. Export volume came in pretty much where the trade estimated. Some analyst expect to see US winter wheat sowing progress up 10% week on week to 82% complete. While others expect to see a lesser increase as farmers take advantage of the better harvest weather to gather the last of the corn and beans.

With Egypt actually buying a boat load of US wheat after the market closed on Friday one may have expected a better show at Chicago overnight. Afterall this was the first US sale to GASC since May 2017. In other news Argentina unsurprisingly surprised the wheat export market by cancelling 150kt of wheat sales put on prior to when export duties were announced.