Canadian canola values continue to slip as their market adjusts to the lower quality of this year’s crop.
I get a bit cynical when I see base rates drop away in years of poor oil. I always thought that is what the P&D system accommodated. A base price for a base oil and P&Ds for better or worse. These days it appears to be a discounted price and premiums to take the better crops back to an acceptable base price for the buyer.
The Paris rapeseed futures market also slipped a little even though EU rapeseed production was back around 10% to 19.7mt this year. The real concern for the EU appears to be the dry conditions persisting through much of NE France and Germany. This is hampering sowing and emergence of the 2019 rapeseed crop. The long term key to rapeseed values does unfortunately lie with relations between the US and China in regards to soybeans.
Reports from Western Australia vary but generally the quality of the canola crop there is good. Highest oil content report to date is 49.4%

France and Germany don’t hold the contract for dry weather though. Conditions across Romania, Ukraine and S.Russia are also less than ideal. Combined with warmer than average temperatures winter cereal emergence hasn’t been ideal and subsoil reserves, especially in the Volga Valley, are limited.