Prices 14/11/18
US grain futures started softer and finished softer. Soft red wheat slipped 12c/bu on the nearby while HRW was back 7c/bu. Apparently the rally on Monday was basically technical short covering that got a little carried away.
The punters used the planting delays in Kansas as a fundamental back bone for the rally but as explained yesterday the delays and the impact it could have on final production is likely to be minimal from a global perspective.
The next USA crop progress report is due out next week on the 19th, we’ll see how big an impact the cold weather has had on the winter wheat sowing pace then.
France reduced its wheat production estimate for this year by 100kt, now pegged at 34.1mt. Yields were “decimated” in some parts of the country resulting in a national average of just 6.97t/ha, those poor buggers. The report went on to state that durum had been severely impacted by the hot dry weather. Barley production was also reduced a little while rapeseed was increased a little month on month. This did result in a softer close for Paris rapeseed futures.
A report out of Western Australia increased wheat production there to 9.1mt, up 11.7% on 2017. At present yields are generally better than expected but protein is lower than average. The harvest there is still in the early stages but growers remain confident.