The US wheat futures market started the morning heading the right direction but the lack of new bullish news chipped away at wheat throughout the session resulting in slight losses by the close. Around the world most futures markets were lower, the US, Australia, even nearby wheat at Paris was a tad lower.

The export pace of the USA is probably one of the more bearish influences on global values at present. The punters are still backing an increase in US exports come the first quarter of next year though. For instance ADM’s Gary McGuigan, President of Global Trade, said he expected to see a sharp increase in demand for US milling wheat come Q1 2019. With a reduction of roughly 35mt of milling wheat around the world this year the US is likely to find itself as one of the few suppliers of quality as stocks are depleted in ports around the Black Sea and Australia.

Delegates from Iraq will go to Russia in December to have a closer look at the Russian supply chain for wheat. Since the Gulf War the US, Australia and Canada have basically had Iraq wheat sales covered. The possible introduction of Russia into the supply chain is likely to put downside pressure on values as long as quality is up to scratch.