The Aussie dollar was firmer against all the major currencies last night. In fact the rally in the dollar negated the move higher in US wheat futures and then some, potentially resulting in swap prices slipping a couple of dollars a tonne locally today.
The surge in iron ore prices this week combined nicely with a more cautious view from the US Fed on lifting interest rates. The US Fed also said they would keep the decade old US$50Bn monthly runoff of Treasury Bonds and Mortgage Backed Security unchanged. This could be construed as showing trust in the current economy.

Fundamental strength in the US wheat futures market was attributed to potential damage from the current Artic blast pushing through N.America. Snow cover was limited across the southern edge of the soft red winter wheat belt. Some freeze damage there is expected.
Now the US Gov shutdown is over we should see some more data feeding into the market place. There is talk of massive delays though as the gears start to turn again. The US Governments departments are not a small machines and do take some starting. There is also the  threat of another shut down by Feb 15th if there is no resolution on the “Wall”,  a week after the February WASDE is due out.

Technically the CME soft wheat contract is neutral, I’m not sure how many more punters want to play another game of wait and see in a fortnight though. US wheat exports are not keeping pace with projections, unless large US sales are made downward pressure will come.