Prices 23/1/20

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Algeria picked up about 450kt of wheat in the recent 50kt tender. This isn’t unusual for Algeria. Prices were much higher than their last tender in December with the trade confirming values around US$245 CFR for mid-grade milling wheat. France is expected to pick up the lion’s share as it usually does but the shipping details do confirm there is a chance they could take wheat from Argentina. France does enjoy much lower shipping costs that most other major exporters into Algeria but the Black Sea wheat could compete.
A  basic analysis of this sale would represent a value of roughly AUD$270 NTP Newcastle, roughly equivalent to $90 lower than current new crop bids available now in N-NSW at a port level.

In the USA grain futures were generally lower with wheat and soybeans pushing lower across all months and grades while corn closed mixed at Chicago, not making a significant move in either direction across any month.
The slippage in wheat comes after a couple of higher closes which were a little hard to explain. Technically SRW futures at Chicago continue to be over bought and unless good weekly sales volumes out of the US are sustained it is looking a little top heavy. If wheat is going to find support from corn it may also struggle. As cheap as corn is, technically the punters might find things a bit challenging.
With China still not showing up on sales sheets in volume the trade are growing impatient but the sentiment is definitely more optimistic than it was a month ago.

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