US grain futures pushed lower with nearby spring wheat at Minneapolis slipping below 500c/bu for the first time since late November. In 2019 MGEX nearby wheat spent a few weeks under 500c dropping to a low of 466c/bu on the 3rd of September.
Looking back at 2019, 2018, 2107 we see that nearby wheat has managed to fall during the first two weeks of March in all three years. Unfortunately recoveries are not a guarantee with the market often struggling to sustain longer term gains after a softer March.
Turkey picked up 305kt of 13.5% milling wheat at an average price of US$225 / tonne. This is lower than their last purchase which saw grain booked at an average price of US$231 per tonne.
Wheat offers out of the Black Sea are US$2.00 to US$3.00 lower with Ukraine values leading the market down. Smaller size vessels have been harder hit with some shallow ports shedding as much as US$6.00 per tonne.
Gulf offers out of the US were also sharply lower with some traders talking losses of as much as US$8.00 per tonne for low grade milling wheat. White wheat out of the Pacific North West of the US was one of the few grades of wheat around the world that didn’t slip but actually gained little in overnight trade. At US$231 per tonne FOB SWW equates to roughly US$256 FOB Japan. Australian ASW wheat would FOB Japan at a number closer to US$276, some US$20 higher.
Values out of Argentina were unchanged. With a strike stopping deliveries to exporters out of Argentina, both up river and at the port, we may see spot prices increase there but at this stage the four day old strike has had little impact as stocks were good prior to the action.