With export restrictions out of the Black Sea creating talk of global trade tightening those with wheat for sale may well come out of the next couple of months with lower stocks than expected. You might come to the conclusion that the US futures market hasn’t really cottoned on to that yet as we are seeing backwardation in the 2020 SRW contracts.
I’m not convinced this is 100% a trade issue though, possibly a domestic grade issue within the US is attributing.
Still at Chicago the Platts Aussie FOB wheat contract was sharply higher. There’s still no volume on this contract but it has shown it tracks FOB cash prices out of WA fairly closely. With May 2020 FOB APW up US$8.50 per tonne to US$252.50 FOB this indicates it could cost an Australian consumer to move it to, say, the Liverpool Plains of NSW as much as AUD$505 delivered end user. If exports out of Australia do increase domestic consumers will need to step up quickly as stocks are limited after 2 drought years in a row.

Ukraine has confirmed is will attempt to cap wheat exports up to June to 22mt. This should see Black Sea supply fall away over the next quarter. Not a massive reduction but it could equate to exports dropping on average about 500kt per month. A quick look at World Ag Weather and we see that Ukraine and Russia are both showing abnormally dry conditions over the last 30 days. The SW Volga and Don River Valleys are dry. When overlaying a wheat production map and a soil moisture map you quickly come to the conclusion that the Black Sea region needs a good fall of rain if it is to see the wheat crop produced they are currently projecting.