China continue to bargain hunt, picking up 567kt of US corn overnight. Trump will no doubt take the credit after pencilling in such an awesome trade deal. On a more realistic note China are basically filling their WTO obligations and who can argue that now wouldn’t be an opportune time to do so. Expect to see more “large” Chinese grain purchases in coming weeks.

US grain futures were mixed in overnight trade. Wheat was generally firmer, a quick look at the charts shows the recent selling in May wheat has turned the tide and we are going into the weekend basically neutral from a technical perspective. With an Easter break quickly approaching this will probably be the target for many punters next week, simply square up and take a break from the madness that has been March / April.

The weekly forecast for the Black Sea wheat area is dry. Temperatures are expected to increase after this week’s cooler weather and by next week we may see temperatures across the Ukraine as much as 4C above normal. Not an ideal combination. The crop is likely to push along a little faster and we may see more wheat in head earlier this year potentially leaving it open to disease, weather or even a late frost in some places. April may yet become interesting. Now combine this with a rapidly drying Europe and we start to get much more interesting. Much of France and Germany have seen little rain after the initial spring break, keep an eye on this.