Eyes are starting to turn towards the European and Black Sea winter wheat crops. Dry weather has seen a number of private analyst reduce their production estimates over the last week. With the French wheat area actually back 8% year on year any major threat to the crop will see markets react favourably.
Condition ratings are still fairly good at this time, French soft wheat is rated at 61% G/E, just a 1% fall week on week but spring sowing and establishment has suffered a little. Crops like spring barley and corn are being more affected than the autumn sown grains at this stage.

In the USA corn and wheat futures were flat to firmer while soybeans slipped lower on the lack of few new export sales. Wheat was destined to find support from somewhere. Technically wheat was due for some upside, during the week punters shrugged off frost reports in Kansas and wheat export pace slowing out of the Black Sea to force US futures lower but the bargain hunters were out in force last night picking up a little profit before the weekend.
Outside markets were also firmer in the USA with the Dow putting on 402 points for the session.
The weaker soybean market at Chicago weighted heavily on ICE canola futures. In Paris the rapeseed contract did find support from the dry weather and closed a little higher across the board.
Keep an eye on the French weather, the week ahead has 20-30mm predicted, if this doesn’t happen prices should firm further.