US markets saw the WASDE come and go without much of a surprise really. Most bearish expectations had already been factored in and the USDA didn’t disappoint so basically it was a case of a quick look over the report and then back to business as usual.
In the US the corn crop will be big, consumption will be big and exports will be big, well according to the USDA and no one really begged to differ. They are talking 406mt of corn in the states, I can remember when they broke 300mt and it was considered huge. Total US demand is pencilled in at 321mt leaving hefty ending stocks of 84.29mt. China still account for a huge percentage of the world carry over with corn stocks at 200mt, just under 60% of total world carry over.
World wheat is pegged at 768.49mt, that’s a lot, and is expected to see ending stocks increase from 295mt to about 310mt. They have Australia pencilled in at 24mt. The most interesting bit on the Aussie row is the carry in stocks are estimated at 3.71mt, I’m guessing the trade would have to own the majority of that. Russia 77mt, Ukraine 28mt, EU 143mt are all safe estimates. Argentina at 21mt might be a bit optimistic but there’s a long way to go until December.

Cash durum bids in Canada have remained relatively stable with the December slot bid ex farm SW Sask at C$264 per tonne. This would roll back to an equivalent number delivered Newcastle port of somewhere around AUD$400 +/-. Conditions across the Canadian durum belt remain a little drier than average, with much of the rain slipping south into the Dakota’s and Red River Valley.