15/5/20 Prices

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World grain futures were generally either side of unchanged. In the US corn and soybeans were a tad softer, HRW and spring wheat were softer while nearby soft red wheat was a smidge higher. No market moved in a convincing manner up or down, as technical trade dominated the volume. Weather in the US is a little wetter than wished in some places, rain makes grain, this weighed over soybeans and countered any attempt to rally on the back of further US sales to China. China accounted for just under half the weekly export sales volume for soybeans out of the States but overall the weekly sales volume was considered sub-par.
Weakness in US wheat futures was contributed to the poorer weekly sales data which saw volume drop 17% on last week and 28% below the prior four week average. Asian markets dominated their book.

Strategie Grain is projecting an EU soft wheat export program of 34.3mt an increase of 1.9mt over their last estimate. Shrinking availability from the Black Sea is the key to this increase. Dry weather across much of N.Africa isn’t hurting sales volume either. The analyst also reduced their EU ending stocks estimate by 1.1mt to just 12.6mt. For the coming harvest StratGrain reduced wheat production estimates for the EU from 135mt last month to 132.9mt due to the dry spring. Corn production was lowered but barley production was increased to 62.6mt. This isn’t great news as the coronavirus has resulted in a sharp decrease in malt demand for the EU block as bars and restaurants remain closed. Not the news Australian farmers need to hear either.

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