13/7/20 Prices
Corn futures in the USA can’t take a trick. China comes in and buys 1.365mt of US corn, the biggest purchase of US corn in 25.5 years and the futures market goes down. Even the USDA WASDE report was more bullish corn than bearish. Ending stocks were lower, production was lower, but all the punters could focus on was the prospect of rain across the mid-west next week, and technical profit taking, did someone say buy the rumour / sell the fact.
China also confirmed the purchase of 130kt of US HRWW and 190kt of US spring wheat, both of those futures contracts also struggled while soft red winter wheat at Chicago found some legs.
A closer look at the WASDE wheat numbers shows world production back from 773.43 in June to 769.31, -4.12mt. World ending stocks were lowered just 1.25mt, hardly a number to drive a market higher. Drilling into the report we see the US reduced wheat production month on month by 1.46mt to 49.63mt, Argentina, Canada and Australia were left unchanged, the EU saw a reduction of 1.5mt to 139.5mt. Russia was back 500kt to 76.5mt, that’s a safe bet. Ukraine was left unchanged at 26.5mt, that’s optimistic. North Africa was back 650kt to 16.78mt, all the reports I’m reading are telling me that has plenty more downside potential. India was left unchanged at 107.18mt as was China at 136mt.
So in summary the numbers look like 30 day old numbers with potential for more reductions in the August report.