14/7/20

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Technical selling and profit taking were the main feature of the US grain futures markets overnight.
Looking at the charts we seeĀ  December corn futures gapped lower, something to keep an eye on as gaps are almost always filled before a contract closes out.
The stochastic tends to lead one to think there could be a few more lower sessions in the short term for corn futures but things are starting to look a little more neutral. Good weather for the US crop for the week ahead will tend to keep pressure on futures values though. This may roll through to weaker basis for Aussie sorghum, at present this is quite strong.
Looking at the wheat chart next, we see wheat is even more over bought than corn. The big jump in futures last week pushed US prices above values needed to compete into the Middle East but did bring futures back from a low spell. Without more bullish news from Northern Hemisphere producers we may find Chicago wheat will continue to struggle for a few more session. China did buy 114kt of US wheat.
The weekly USDA crop progress report, out after the close, shows a slight week on week decline in corn condition with the volume of the crop rated Good / Excellent back 2% to 69%. Soybeans also saw a 3% decline in the G/E rating. Weekly US export inspections for corn and soybeans were not great, so don’t expect to see soybeans helping canola values along this week.
As for wheat the weekly crop progress report shows 68% of the US winter wheat in the bin, 2% ahead of the average. Spring wheat rated G/E dropped 2% to 68%, still too high but should surprise a few and 80% of the spring wheat crop is now in head.

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