13/8/20 Prices

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Sorghum harvest is underway in China’s Jiangjin district. Over the last 30 days the region has seen rainfall in excess of 150mm with up to double that in some locations. The region has mostly small farms with some harvesting taking place by hand. Sorghum there is produced for the wine industry. 75% of US sorghum exports have been destined for China, with over half of that moving out of Texas. According to official US reports Chinese imports of US sorghum have increased by as much as 150% year on year.

At the Chicago futures markets soybeans showed some life while wheat and corn futures were, in the case of wheat mostly a touch lower and for corn a touch higher. Damage from the strong winds that lashed Iowa is still being accessed and may be reflected in next week’s crop progress report.
There was a WASDE report out last night, some highlights. US wheat production increased, consumption increased, ending stocks reduced, USDA price expectation reduced 10c/bu, exports increased a little. US sorghum crop increased from 8.036mt to 9.423mt, export projection increased significantly but still seeing a rise in ending stocks there. Average expected ex farm sorghum price reduced to US$122/t.

Makes me wonder why the FOB Texas number is US$215, something isn’t gelling, 50% of the Texas harvest is in, maybe a sharp drop to new crop coming soon, maybe the USDA are on drugs.
World wheat production is back 3.28mt to 766.03mt but ending stocks are up 1.95mt to 316.79mt, ouch. Reductions to EU, Kaz & Argie. Russia was increased 1.5mt to 78mt. Brazil was also increased by 1.1mt to 6.8mt, that’s a big crop for there, new record if done.

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