31/8/20 Prices

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US wheat futures took a breather overnight slipping a few cents a bushel in the December SRWW contract at Chicago.
Since the 10th of August the SRWW futures contract has trended higher with just 4 lower closes during that time frame, putting on 48c/bu (about AUD$24/t). During the same window Newcastle APW1 values have moved $6.00 high, much of that yesterday when track values jumped $5.00/t. Currency during that time frame has generally worked against AUD values with AUD/USD improving about 1c (-$3.80/t).

The strength of, or lack of strength, in the greenback will continue to be an ongoing issue. With the Yuan pegged to the US dollar it may also be an issue for some Aussie exports to China. On Thursday the Federal Reserve in the US essentially admitted that they are probably years away from raising official interest rates in the USA. The general consensus among the punters seems to be pointing towards the AUD hitting around 75c before Christmas.

Corn and soybeans managed to close in the black overnight, helping to limit losses in wheat. The funds did step in as big buyers of wheat as it slipped though. Technically wheat is now substantially overbought and may struggle to sustain upward or sideways momentum without some good US sales on the book in the short term.
Germany joined France in reducing wheat production estimates. This coincided with the EC pulling back EU SW production to 113.5mt.

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