US wheat futures closed the session higher after finding technical support during the day. Week on week the December soft red winter wheat contract at Chicago did slip 8.5c/bu (AUD$4.30). US export sales were unimpressive but within trade expectations so offered little more than confirmation the US is still on the right track. Cash bids for Club White wheat out of the PNW were unchanged and HRW bids on the CIF market out of the PNW were a little firmer. Roughly HRW values would convert back to an Aussie port price of somewhere around AUD$320 port, so some AUD$17 above current bids for H2 at a port level, confirming Aussie wheat is still very cheap into the Asian market.

In the northern hemisphere winter wheat sowing is winding up in many locations. France is estimated at 88% sown, the USA is all but done now with the crop progress report out early this week estimating sowing at 93% complete. The weather across southern Kansas and the HRW belt to the south remains drier than one would like to see. Some parts of the Texas panhandle have seen just 20% of average rainfall for this time of year over the last couple of weeks. In Europe conditions are generally about average with France a little drier than average and west Germany and Poland a little wetter than average. South central Russia remains relatively dry while central east Russia is wetter than average. The area between the Black Sea and Caspian Sea is going to be a concern again as soil moisture was basically depleted in the 2020 season and there’s been less than needed rainfall to replenish it. A lot will depend on how good the spring is. Dry weather continues to hamper the sowing of the summer crops in both Brazil and Argentina, I’ve seen pics of dead soybeans out of south central Brazil.