There was a nice rally in ICE canola futures last night, up C$4.20 on the nearby contract. Cash values in SW Saskatchewan were not as keen to follow this rally dollar for dollar as they have done with past rallies, putting on C$1.58 for a December lift. It will be interesting to see what our basis over ICE is come Monday afternoon. Basis was only +$3.34 on Friday, ICE rallied C$4.20, we might see our first negative basis for the harvest…… yeah sure, there’s a close correlation between cash and futures…sure there is… loose at best most days.
Still in SW Sask we see durum was flat and wheat was down C$1.37 / tonne.
Stronger soybean futures at Chicago pushed higher while wheat and corn struggled to stay in the black, moving just a couple of cents per bushel. What if the US converted to the metric system overnight…….there’d be mass confusion….. -_-..
Dry conditions in the USA and Russia continue to counter the bumper wheat crop in Australia. The Texas Panhandle remains relatively dry, achieving 20% or less of the usual rainfall for the last 14 days. Much of Kansas isn’t much better for the fortnight. There’s an average section across central Kansas but both the west and east counties are looking at just 40-60% of average rainfall for the last couple of weeks.
The seven day forecast shows much of the rain predicted for the USA falling east of the driest locations next week.
For Russia the wettest area has been across the central black soil plains south of Volgodonsk, a very productive area. Much of central and western Russia remain very dry and there are a lot of dry patches on the map around the Black Sea and Volga Valley too. The Volga Valley north of the Caspian Sea and much of Ukraine north of Crimea may become troublesome areas in the spring.