14/1/21 Prices

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US wheat futures were mixed, soft red winter wheat at Chicago was back a little while hard red winter wheat was a touch firmer, as was spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange.
Cash bids for US hard and spring wheat out of the Pacific North West were generally up 3-6c/bu while white wheat was unchanged. Club white wheat was bid at US$6.76/bu. On the back of an envelope this would roll back to a number equivalent to a Newcastle port price close to AUD$297. Current APW1 bids into the port are roughly $307, so about a $10 premium over the US equivalent grade. I remember the good old days where the pool wasn’t having a go unless they were extracting a $25 premium over US wheat. Soft white wheat out of the PNW was roughly about the same price as club white or a fraction lower.
US corn futures found some more upside while the soybean futures were a touch lower on the nearby. This influenced March canola at the ICEĀ  which finished the session a little lower. Paris rapeseed was flat to firmer.

The AUD now appears to be rangebound after failing to push through lower resistance levels. The punters are still predicting heavy selling to be triggered if resistance of 76.43 is breached. Support would be summoned around 76.03, the fall does appear unlikely in the short term given the current trend. Upward resistance is in place at 77.99, a breach of this have many expecting to see the 2018 April high of 78.16 become the next target and resistance level. US dollar strength will rely on Biden stimulus, and a US COVID19 vaccine roll out.

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