The US celebrated Martin Luther King Day with a public holiday on Monday.

Scrolling through the market reports there’s nothing jumping out as majorly bullish or bearish. The Russian export tax is the main story. The increase in Russian offer values seems to have resulted in Turkey pulling a tender for 400kt of wheat. Egypt also cancelled a tender last week. It may take that part of the world a few days to digest exactly what a fair price for wheat is going forward.
US HRW wheat is offered out of the Gulf at about US$279 FOB, frieght to Egypt is roughly US$29, so about US$308 FOB Egypt. Ukraine wheat is offered at about US$272, frieght is closer to US$18, so US$290 FOB Egypt, roughly US$18 under the US number. Supply out of the Black Sea will be the next issue. Aussie H2 could work FOB Egypt at something close to US$308 and is better than the US equivalent.

Sorghum offers out of the USA are indicated at US$317 FOB Texas this week, so roughly equivalent to AUD$432 port Newcastle. Looking at Argentina we see sorghum offered at US$197 port, if using China as a destination, equivalent to AUD$260 Newcastle. That’s a huge variation. Aussie port values are closer to AUD$295, well below the US but displaying a healthy premium to Argie sorghum. It’s probably safe to say that global sorghum stocks would currently be very low. China imported 11.3mt of corn in 2020 (quota 7.2mt). China also imported 8.38mt of wheat (9.64mt quota). High domestic demand from a recovering hog market will continue to drive feed grain imports there in 2021.