Corn and soybeans lead the Chicago grain futures market higher leaving wheat behind to close flat.
The markets were focusing on a cold snap due through the corn belt later this week. Over the last few days temperatures in the corn belt have been a little cool but not a problem. Mornings down to 2 to 5C and days in the high teens. Some models are showing the risk of temperatures dropping as low as -3C to -4C across a large swath of Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois on Wednesday and Thursday morning. Predictions of snow flurries as far south as Missouri (I’d like to see that) has the market back on edge.
Corn planting had been progressing quickly with Iowa estimated at 12% sown vs the 5 year average of 8%. What may save the day is immergence has been very slow. The ability of immerging corn to recover from a frost event will depend greatly on the length of time temperatures remain at or below -2C. If temperatures fall no less than -2C for a short time corn generally recovers. While temperatures below -2C for more than a few hours will kill seedlings.
The cold snap apparently poses little risk to the winter wheat crop. This week’s crop progress report shows Kansas winter wheat is not in head vs a 5 year average of 4%. So there is potentially a few fields at risk but not a heap. Kansas wheat is rated at 55% good to excellent.
The dry weather across the Dakotas and Montana continues to allow the spring wheat to be sown at a good pace. N.Dakota now pegged at 13% sown against the 5 year avg of just 5%. The rainfall outlook for both the Canadian Prairies / durum belt and the US spring wheat region continues to be mostly dry for the week ahead