In the US futures market overnight we see Chicago soybeans again firmer. Chinese demand and thoughts that the previous dry weather may have pruned US yields a little were said to be the key but more than likely we are still seeing a few bargain hunters active and thoughts that S.American crops are not as good as many would have hoped are probably also playing a roll.
As is often the case the stronger bean market rolled through to canola and rapeseed futures. Paris values were slightly firmer while Winnipeg canola kept more in step with the strength in the soybeans. The stronger AUD will bring a little upside potential undone but we should continue to see higher local values here again today.
Spring wheat futures fared the best of the wheat grades in the USA. Seven day rainfall totals across the main spring wheat regions of the US and Canada were not as good as hoped for. Central N.Dakota seeing falls of just 10mm +/-, while the durum belt in Saskatchewan remained mostly dry. Cash bids for dark northern spring wheat out of the US PNW were firmer in line with Minneapolis futures. DNS with an average protein of 14% for a Sept river delivery was bid on average US$8.70/bu. A back of an envelope conversion would make that equivalent to roughly AUD$387 for APH1 NTL using Japan as an destination. Local bids for new crop APH1 were closer to AUD$325 port.
Strength in US spring wheat futures was also found on the back of trade guesses that the weekly USDA crop progress report would reduce US spring wheat crop rating. The report out after the close did indeed do that. The Good / Excellent rating percentage was slashed from 37% last week to just 27% this week. The average trade guess was a 2% reduction, not 10%. So expect further support in wheat tonight.