US soybean futures sold off overnight. Oilseeds were caught up in a general commodity sell off associated with the increase in value of the US dollar more than any fundamental reason. Globally most major analyst continue to see support for not only oilseeds but grains in general going forward.
It was unfortunate the cash market for canola in Canada was caught up in the technical weakness in the oilseed futures market but alas it was and we saw cash bids out of SE Saskatchewan fall around C$13.24 for a December slot. This still works back to an Aussie port price of about AUD$1000/t using Europe as a destination.
Ukraine rapeseed is bid at US$662 FOB. Let’s look at the maths for this going to China by a panamax and what Aussie canola could be priced at in able to compete for the same home. It costs about US$69 in ocean frieght, so FOB China about US$731. It costs about US$23 ocean freight from Australia to China, so US$731 – US$23 is roughly US$708 FOB Aussie port. Costs to FOB used to be relatively transparent, not the case these days, so let’s assume it will cost a buyer roughly AUD$40. The AUD is back to 71.48 this morning, so US$708 = AUD$990, less $40, so about AUD$950 port. Yesterday cash bids were AUD$887 port.
Canadian durum values were flat in overnight cash trade. Looking at cash bids for 1CWAD13, it doesn’t matter whether Canadian durum goes to Italy off the east coast or Japan from the PNW it still converts to an AUD port number of over AUD$730. French is closer to AUD$520.