14/9/21 Prices

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Canadian cash bids were mixed, spring wheat flat, durum sharply lower again and cash canola generally following both ICE futures at Winnipeg and Paris rapeseed futures higher.
The harvest pace has picked up in Canada, with recent showers receding, allowing for good weekly advances. This seems to be the key to the weakness in durum prices there.
Canadian durum prices were and continue to be well above bids / offers from other major producers like France. With the projected tightness in Canadian supply, potentially to the point of exhausting stocks early next year. North American processors were keen to get coverage early. These contracts now appear to be getting filled creating a bit of a void in the panic buying in Canada at present. The panic may come back into the market once we start to see a few Canadian supply chains issues during their winter and snow becomes a problem for execution. In saying this the old cliche of “never look a gift horse in the mouth” does start to ring in my ears.

We had the weekly USDA crop progress report out overnight. A quick glance shows 37% of the national corn crop mature, Illinois 51% mature and the other “I” states around 30-34%. The G/E rating for corn was back 1% to 58%. I’m still struggling to see a crop rated at 58% G/E producing the corn the USDA reckons it will. Sorghum harvest moves on to 21% complete. Cotton rating was increased 3% to 64% G/E. Winter wheat sowing was pegged at 12% complete, Kansas 4% sown.

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