23/12/21 Prices

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World wheat values found support from both increased demand and potentially lower supply. The supply side reduction not coming from any kind of production adjustment but from thoughts that Ukraine will be next to implement export restrictions in the first half of next year.  Although this has been denied by Ukraine officials domestic millers continue to lobby.
Wheat also found support from higher Chicago corn and soybean futures. Unfortunately the higher close in soybeans did not transpose into a higher close for ICE canola futures at Winnipeg. Paris rapeseed futures did close higher though, up E8.75 on the nearby contract and E9.75 for the May slot. This is a E44.25 rally in nearby Paris rapeseed futures since this time last week.

Algeria picked up 240kt of durum wheat according to industry participants. Algeria do not make tender results public. The trades were estimated to take place between US$700 to US$720 C&F for February delivery. Product was said to have been purchased from both Canada and Mexico. On the back of an envelope this would equate to an ex farm LPP price in the vicinity of AUD$800 – AUD$820 per tonne.

Germany has been reported to have increased their winter rapeseed sowing by 9% over last year. High prices for oilseeds in Europe will likely result in larger production in 2022 across both west and east Europe. Currently we see Paris rapeseed futures for November 2022 delivery at E548.25 per tonne, about E200 lower than the Feb22 slot. The Nov22 slot would roughly convert to a XF LPP value of AUD$790 per tonne with zero basis.

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