Wheat futures in the US was the big winner last night. The punters are pushing the Russia / Ukraine conflict again. So far any predictions over supply disruptions of grain out of Ukraine have not be justified. This hasn’t stopped the market from continually pushing this narrative and forcing US wheat futures higher. Broadly speaking cash offers for wheat out of the PNW and the Atlantic ports of the US did follow futures higher, maybe not dollar for dollar, but higher they did go.
Last week’s US wheat export sales pace was poor, further price increases this week are probably not going to help reverse that trend. Minneapolis cash spring wheat numbers moved lower, against the trend higher in March MGEX spring wheat futures.
This bounce in wheat may be a very hard to sustain without some fuel early next week. Spill over buying from corn helps, a little.

Looking across world markets to justify last night’s rally in US wheat futures could leave one a little perplexed. Fundamental pressures are potentially pushing wheat lower more than higher. Weather across the US HRWW belt is probably about the only real threat to supply at present and it’s only the middle of February. To write the US winter wheat crop off this early is akin to putting on weight while looking at a pizza still in the oven. Yes it’s worth watching but is US wheat worth $100 more than Aussie wheat to the Asian market is the question.
The major issue to follow is the deteriorating summer crops in Brazil and the expected cancellation of Chinese orders for S.American product. These issues will fuel the market going forward. Not until ANZAC day do we determine if the US wheat crop is ready to be sprayed out or fed off. 30 day rainfall maps for Russia look very good and could even indicate that a fall in US wheat production could be covered elsewhere.