Macron – Come on man, I don’t want a war. Putin – No worries, I don’t want a war either. Biden – Guys, come on. Also Putin – Come to me east Ukraine, come back to mother country. Biden – ooooo yeah. Putin – mmmm, do I remove wheat export tax now.

All Chicago grain futures saw was the chance for another massive rally. All grains closing sharply higher.
Russian recognition of breakaway states in eastern Ukraine isn’t new news (2014) but was seen as unbearably provoking by the US. According to western media Russian troops are moving into eastern Ukraine. This was quickly followed by more sanctions on Russia, you know, because sanctions have been so effective in the past. Russia has not confirmed the deployment of troops but had earlier authorised a “peace keeping force” to be deployed if needed.
The land size being squabbled over is roughly 90ks x 300ks, 2.7mha, roughly comparable to the NSW – NWSP. It’s a very nice block of dirt though, black soil, some ports, mines, probably not worth a nuclear war but it’d look good on Putin’s resume. As for Macron risking to turn Paris into a pile of Hiroshima ash, with no eastern gas to warm their charred remains, I don’t think so.
The reality is that there hasn’t been and is unlikely to be any disruptions at grain export terminals from either Ukraine or Russia. The rally in wheat futures is speculative.
Overnight Turkey picked up 255kt of feed barley at roughly US$325 CFR. This is very close to values this time last year and roughly US$3.00 higher than their last purchase. Still makes Aussie feed barley look very cheap.