US wheat futures continue to push higher. Yesterday we saw the first of the weekly US crop progress reports for the 2022 season. Wheat condition across the HRW state of Kansas took a few by surprise. The ratings of 32% Good to Excellent was a little low, 30% of the crop being rated Poor to very Poor wasn’t ideal either. The growth stage in Kansas is about 11% jointed, just a smidge under the usual percentage of 13% for the average.
Looking at the US winter wheat crop as a whole the rating of 30% G/E was low, 22% lower than average. Combine this with the infrastructure damage in Ukraine and the expectation of a reduction in area sown there of 25% and you start to get a feel why the wheat bulls are back in control.
US weekly wheat export volume remains poor.

The canola market wasn’t so cut and dry. Winnipeg found some weakness, in both new and old crop values. While across the Atlantic in Paris rapeseed futures were sharply higher, new and old crop putting on double digit gains. It will be interesting to see which of these two markets get a following today. I mean currency up another 0.41% isn’t helping but the jump in Paris values isn’t exactly something the new crop market should ignore.

The European Commission reports that crop progress there is a little behind average. Probably a good thing considering much of France recorded their coldest April night since 1947 on Monday night. Parts of the SW of France, durum country, saw the mercury slip as low as -5C in places. The growth stage of wheat in this area is around Zadocks 35 – 45. Usually, we need to see temperature below -7C for stem frosting, so they may have dodged a bullet. We will need to keep an eye on crop condition rating over the next couple of weeks to confirm. Durum was rated at 87% G/E, quite high.