14/10/22 Prices

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US corn, wheat and soybean futures closed in the green overnight. Some bargain hunters were in the mix for wheat after the last couple of weaker closes. There was a little buying support still there in soybeans and corn from the USDA data.
The major support in wheat came from speculation that the Black Sea corridor deal between Ukraine and Russia will not be renewed past its Nov 19th expiry date, if it makes it to that date at all.
According to a Reuters report Russia is going to walk away from the current agreement unless several concerns are addressed. At this stage the only persons aware of those concerns contained in a letter delivered to the UN are the UN negotiators, the letter has not been made public, hence the speculation.
Russia has expressed concern over the impact the war is having on their own grain and fertilizer exports… this concern was not finding an empathetic ear among many.

The market also found fundamental support from Argentina where the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their estimate for the Argie wheat crop by another 1mt, down to 16.5mt. This is 1mt lower than the USDA number in this week’s WASDE report. The drought ravaged crop is expected to be their worst wheat crop in 7 years.
The Philippines issued an optional origin feed wheat tender for delivery in Jan / Feb / March. We should know those numbers today.
Both French and Canadian durum values, at farm and FOB level, were higher overnight. SE Saskatchewan XF bids up C$4.83 for a Dec lift.

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