Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reviewed their expectation of the Argentine wheat crop lower. Now estimated at just 14mt, some 26% below the 5 year average. In the October USDA WASDE report Argentine wheat production was estimated at 17.5mt. So we should expect to see a significant reduction in this estimate in the November WASDE due out on the 9th, Thursday our time. Argentina was estimated to export 12mt in the last WASDE report, there’s a good chance this will be amended, domestic use should remain close to 6 to 6.3mt. Projected Argentine carry out was already very low at just 1.28mt.
There is talk of 2022 wheat contracts being rolled out into 2023.
It’s probably a good thing that Brazil is expected to produce a record wheat crop. Traditionally Brazil is a big importer of Argentine wheat but many have Brazil now pencilled in as a net exporter for 2022-23.

Iraq picked up 150kt of wheat this week, 50kt Aussie, 50kt Lithuania and 50kt from Canada. Trading house Tiryaki Agro, based in Istanbul sold the Aussie wheat at US$480 C&F, cheaper than both the European and Canadian parcels. Iraq tender results are not made public, much like the way Algeria trades, these numbers are trade best estimates. Iraq is expected to import around 5mt of wheat this trading year, 2mt of that before the end of April 2023.

Xi Jinping came out publicly warning Russia not to resort to the use of nukes in Ukraine. This comes a day after a Chinese owned port facility in Mykolaiv on the Black Sea, containing 17kt (AUD$41m) of sunseed oil, was destroyed by Russian missiles…. coincidence, maybe.
G7 diplomats continue to put pressure on Putin to extend the Black Sea Ukraine export corridor deal past Nov 19th. Putin wasn’t in that room.