The US had a day off yesterday, Martin Luther King Jr remembrance day. The EU markets generally trended lower, corn, wheat and rapeseed at Paris all closing in the red. The pressure may spill into the US markets when they open again. Much of Friday’s support at Chicago was said to be smaller punters closing out positions, unwilling to remain exposed over a long weekend.  Is the GoldmanSachs roll still a thing ?
Although US wheat stocks are low, from an international perspective the larger 2022 wheat crops in both Russia and Australia will continue to undermine any significant rally in world wheat values. At least until we start to move into the silly season, the northern hemisphere thaw.
Rain in the spring can make or break the northern hemisphere winter wheat crops. With both Russian and US winter wheat currently not in exceptional condition, this M/A/M period could be interesting. The Russian crop recently saw some very cold weather, with many fields having little to no snow cover. This could see winter kill reduce yield potential in Russia, but this is hard to determine until the spring.
The US remains very dry across much of southern Kansas and the central and southern HRWW belt. Without a good snow melt or some heavy spring rains the US HRW crop is also likely to suffer and achieve less than average yields.

Algeria is tendering for wheat tonight for March shipment. Algeria generally does not make trade size and price public, so results are often what the trade consider to be what was bought. Look for this info on Thursday or Friday.
Recent wheat sales into Turkey continue to indicate that Australia wheat prices are cheap enough to compete across the globe. Look for a high Aussie export pace to persist through Q1 – 2 2023. Australia is also expected to export 5.98mt of canola this marketing year compared to 1.54 in 2018-19.