In the USA good weekly corn and soybean export inspection numbers helped keep the rally alive in the row crops. Wheat futures at Chicago appeared to be a follower of the row crops enjoying a free ride higher.

Corn futures at Chicago also found good support from the deteriorating corn crop in Argentina. Even with some decent rain now showing up in the forecast there are many that believe the damage has been done, and much of the crop cannot recover current projected yield reductions. The forecast of 20-30mm across the southern Pampas and less around Santa Fe and Cordoba is most probably a case of too little too late for many. With temperatures over the last week generally in the high 30’s + in the major corn producing regions and more of the same predicted over the next 7 days the heat will make short work of 20-30mm without significant follow up rain. Many producers there are now calling this the worst drought in Argentina for 50 years.

Algeria was said to have bought 570kt (between 510kt – 600kt) of milling wheat at US$334.50 CFR. Algeria does not disclose tender details, but the trade assumes that a large slice of the tender will be Black Sea wheat.
France continues to factor in Nth African business into their S&D. If Algeria continue to buy Black Sea wheat, these numbers will need to be amended. This could potentially change the carry over level of French and Black Sea estimates but have little impact on the World S&D and final carry out. On the back of an envelope the US$334.50 number would come in somewhere comparable to around AUD$390 – AUD$400 XF LPP.
There is speculation that Russia could increase wheat export taxes to sure up reserves. On the back of a record crop, probably unlikely.