US wheat, corn, and soybean futures are lower. It’s a sea of red this morning, London feed wheat is lower, Paris milling wheat is lower, Paris rapeseed is off E3.25. Nearby Winnipeg canola futures are lower. Soybean oil is one of the few products closing higher last night.
The Aussie dollar also followed that trend, fortunately. The AUD put in a session low of 68.67 before trending higher into the close but still managed to shed 1.13% day to day.
The fall in the AUD will help to buffer the lower futures market in Europe and the USA today. It probably won’t counter the negativity 100% but in the case of SRWW it’s worth about +AUD$4.62 against the futures move lower of AUD$8.91. The conversion of Paris rapeseed in Euros to AUD per tonne is also indicating the weaker AUD has helped a lot but the decline here is likely to be AUD$5.00 unless we see some further strength in local basis.
Is the AUD weaker or the USD higher. The major impact locally is corporate earnings and real-estate prices. Sydney dwelling values are back 14%, now you only need to be a multi-millionaire to afford to live there, not a billionaire. The higher cost of living and higher interest rates and pushing sellers onto the market. It appears to be the rental punters hurting the most. Interest rates and inflation of costs have eroded the margin in that game considerably.

The dry weather plaguing Argentina is creeping north into southern Brazil. There is concern that the soybean production estimate, a record 153mt, may be a little high. Some punters have suggested by as much as 10mt. It’s early days yet and yields in states that have dodged the drought conditions are above average. It may be another month before this is confirmed or denied. Farmer sales are lower than usual, this may mean a rally in price will see a surge in sales during the later phase of harvest. A quick look at the 30day rainfall for Brazil tends to make one think too much rain is more the problem.