The big winner in last night’s futures markets was Paris rapeseed. The nearby contract put on E11.25 with the August slot up E11.75 and the November slot also up E11.00. I’m not seeing a tonne of reasoning behind this rally in the commentary this morning.
French area for winter rapeseed is 9% higher than last year and up 11% from the 5-year average. The estimated French area sown was 1.29mha in December and has been increased 1.34mha in February.
The main problem in France and Germany at the moment appears to be moisture, or a lack of it. A quick look at World Ag Weather and the 30-day anomaly map tells the story. Almost all of France has seen less than 40% of their average rainfall over the last 30 days, many locations are less than 20%. 30-day totals are struggling to be greater than 10mm in many fields. The 7 days forecast for France isn’t great either, predicting falls over 25mm will be isolated to the far SE or SW of the country. The majority of the crop is grown in the central, central north and northeast of the country.
Still on France it should be mentioned that durum area is back 4.8% on last year and 12.6% below the five-year average at 233kha. Barley and winter wheat, like winter rapeseed, are also looking for a drink.

MATIF futures at Paris have seen the funds go from a net short position, to a net long position over the last couple of weeks. Are they betting on a dry spring pruning yields in Europe this year. Time will tell. Paris milling wheat futures closed the session E1.25 higher on the nearby but new crop contracts were either side of unchanged. It’s not quite the silly season yet, but you can feel it getting closer. March / April / May are renowned for some major market moves as both the US and EU autumn sown crops break dormancy and yield estimates become more of a science than a guessing game.