With the May futures contracts for wheat, corn, soybean, rapeseed, and canola all approaching first notice day, volume in the nearby contract is low thus we are seeing an increase in volatility related to fewer transactions having a larger impact on price. Look to the July or outer months for direction as we move into May.
Both European and US grain futures were generally either side of flat last night. Chicago soybeans broke that trend to close higher. Chicago wheat also enjoyed a little upside with both the nearby and December contract closing in the green.
Spring wheat performed well with double digit gains by the close, the December slot up 14.5c/bu (AUD$8.05). Spring wheat futures at Minneapolis had lost 106c/bu (AUD$58.87) since April 10th, 73.75c (AUD$40.96) of that just this week. To see a slight bounce is not unexpected, but it will take a week or so to determine if the punters are happy with this as a short-term base in prices and we see further upside.

Talks to keep the Ukraine Black Sea Grain Corridor deal open continue to stumble. G7 nations are considering banning exports to Russia. Russia has said if this happens, they will no longer ensure safe passage of Ukraine grain out of the Black Sea. In the meantime, Ukrainian grain exporter Nibulon are investing heavily in developing export capability from Izmail, a Danube river port on the border with Romania. The Danube gives Ukraine grain access to the Black Sea via the Romanian port of Constanta, which is already exporting over 8mt of Ukraine grain annually. 2022 exports through Constanta port were a massive 24mt+. Romania is a NATO member. Russia insist they need access to international banking facilities in order to continue to export agricultural goods. This remains the major stumbling block to an extension of the export corridor on May 18th.