A combination of a good planting pace in US corn and Chinese cancellations of US corn purchases weighed on the Chicago contracts overnight. The July23 corn contract shed 11.75c/bu (AUD$6.84). Futures fell away quicker than up country bids in the states, basis improved across many elevators and end users. Trade estimates (guesses) for the 2023-24 US corn crop for this Friday’s WASDE report are averaging much higher than last year’s production. Some have US corn production estimates at 384.06mt, well above 348.75mt.
Dalian corn futures were flat, closing up just Y2 in the July 23 slot at Y2616 / tonne, AUD$559.10 per tonne.
The moves in the US wheat futures markets directly reflected the results of Monday night’s crop progress report. Declining condition in the HRW belt, better prospects in the soft red winter wheat belt and sowing delays, but a rapid pace of sowing, across the spring wheat belt.

The HRW crop should be much smaller in the US this year. This may put pressure on spring wheat supply, possibly increasing US domestic demand for  spring wheat and somewhat limiting exports of US spring wheat and increasing the basis to the PNW for HRWW. This will bode well for H2 and greater grades of Australian wheat come Q3-4 2023, if there is any left on hand and new crop, unless we see increased supplies from Europe and Russia.
European crop ratings are still very good. Looking at World Ag Weather, rainfall across Europe has been OK, possibly a little lighter than average for the last fortnight but crop ratings are generally holding above 90% G/E for most grains, apart from Spain which is in the grip of a serious dry spell.
Russia appears to be having a dream run, maybe even too wet in some locations of central Russia. The black earth region is seeing rainfall at average for this time of year, some parts much wetter, some parts a little drier but generally very good. Russian / Kazak spring wheat needs rain soon, getting dry.