There are mixed signals in the US corn market. Chinese cancellations this week may not have been as simple as China washing out to buy S.American corn. Some reports overnight appear to be blaming the lack of ability to supply US corn at the time of loading. Some analysts are suggesting tight old crop stocks from the sellers perspective. In other words US farmers being reluctant to sell old crop corn at current values to the trade in the US. As hard to believe as it sounds, this is getting some traction this morning. Will a short squeeze lift or put a floor in US corn futures or will it simply mean that US sales will slow and purchases will move to alternative suppliers, with ample stocks on hand, like S.America.

There is some concern a crucial port at Odessa was frozen out of the latest Black Sea grain corridor deal. Inspections at the port of Pivdennyi are said to have been suspended. This appears to contradict a report from Reuters only Friday that ensured that the port was included in the deal.

During the week the French farm office again reduced French wheat export projections for 2022-23. The 100kt reduction now see’s French non-EU exports estimated at 10.3mt. The fall in exports being reflected in higher carry in for the 2023-24 season.
Germany has reduced the area sown to winter wheat year on year. The fall just 1.4%, to 2.85mha is a result of falling wheat prices as well as what were very good rapeseed prices at sowing. Rapeseed area is expected to be 7.6% higher this year with 1.16mha sown. Feed barley area was increased to 1.27mha sown, a 5.2% increase in area over last year. Malting barley, sown in the spring in Germany saw a year-on-year reduction in area, the 2023-24 area estimated at 329.3kha, back more than 11%.