23/5/23 Prices

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US wheat found both bearish and bullish news overnight. Weekly US wheat export inspections were better than expected at 407.6kt. The sharp decline in values last week is more likely to show up in weekly sales data than shipping data for a week or two.
The shipping data may well be more reflective of the uncertainty of the extension of the Black Sea corridor leading up to the Turkish election. The Turkish election was too close, now there will be a runoff election. The punters are generally backing the current leader, Erdogan, and believe with him remaining in power it will be beneficial to the movement of grain out of the Black Sea, as he has played a role in the establishment and extension of the deal over the last 6 months.
Bearish news for US wheat prices came from news that Ardent Mills, a US based flour miller, was said to have ordered up to 7 cargos of German and Polish wheat for import to their US mills. Ardent has milling capacity at over 40 locations across the USA. The wheat is expected to be used at milling locations farthest away from the HRW belt. To date 2 cargos of Polish wheat have arrived at their plant in Florida.

The USDA weekly crop progress report was out overnight. Corn planting progressed well, now 81% sown (75% Avg). Soybeans are also going in at a good pace now, 66% sown (52% Avg). Cotton is a little behind at 45% sown (50% Avg). Sorghum is bang on the average at 33%. 61% of the US winter wheat crop is in head, Kansas 73% (75% Avg for Kansas). The winter wheat condition rating improved, 31% G/E (29% LW). The rating for Kansas is 10% G/E, unchanged week on week. The changes for Kansas are in the P/VP rating, more wheat slipping down the scale to see the VP rating now at 37%, 3% higher than last week. Spring wheat sowing picked up, just the wet places falling behind now, 64% sown (73% Avg). N.Dakota the slowest state, 48% in.

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