Someone pulled out the defibrillator at Chicago last night. Wheat, corn, and soybeans were all sharply higher.
Social media had photos of a bunch of half dead corn in Illinois, and 25cm high spring wheat going to head in Minnesota posted last night. Is the rally a response to the reality of much of the spring wheat belt and the central corn belt seeing hardly any rain since sowing or is it a response to the weaker US dollar. Either way the US markets were much stronger by the close.
The rally in soybeans is probably the biggest surprise to many. To rally locally after the confirmation of a huge Brazilian crop, this early in the growing season is a big call. If the US join Argentina in the drought basket, the excess grown by Brazil may just go to counter the reductions in Argie and the US. Food for thought.
Winnipeg canola and Paris rapeseed were beneficiaries, Paris rapeseed also seeing a fair level of support from less-than-ideal conditions across much of northern Europe. Keep an eye on the weekly crop rating for both the US and Europe next week.
The forecast for the US central corn belt kept getting worse every time it was updated this week. Last night’s prediction was the icing on the cake. The 7-day model now predicting 0- <25mm from Iowa to Indiana. The eastern US spring wheat belt could see an inch+, too little too late for some with stressed crops already dropping late tillers in some parts or a lifeline just in time ??.
Much of France should see 20-40mm over the next week but further north much of Germany and Poland are not expected to see much. Italy and southern France will finally see a dry week. Maybe we’ll get a better feel for the durum quality there by next weekend. Durum prices out of SE Saskatchewan were lower, back about C$2.76 on average, meanwhile milling wheat pushed C$9.25 higher for a Dec lift, the durum / milling spread now just +C$0.33t to durum.