To tell you the truth I wasn’t sure what to expect after the weekend’s effort. For anyone to think they have half a handle on what is likely to unfold in the Russia / Ukraine war they’d have to be dreaming, maybe a vodka fuelled nightmare would get you halfway to understanding it.

Paris and Chicago wheat futures almost shrugged off the events of the weekend, as though they didn’t happen. Maybe the weaker close was an indication of the wider sentiment, possibly the events were a signal that the conflict is closer to an end than a beginning, or the end of the beginning…..
US markets were more wrapped up in the local weather. Rain, hail, tornadoes, no rain, 70kmph winds, the US had it all over the weekend.
Corn and soybean crop ratings continued to decline in the weekly crop progress report. The 5% fall in the G/E rating for corn week on week should rattle a few windows in tomorrow’s session. Most punters were expecting a smaller reduction. Soybeans fell less, now rated at 45% Good, and 6% excellent. Only 14% of the US soybean crop is rated poor to very poor as opposed to corn which now has 15% rated P/VP, a week on week increase of 3%. The G/E rating for Iowa corn stands at 56%, Indiana 47%, and Illinois just 26%, and Nebraska at 57% G/E.
The 7-day forecast for the central corn belt is now looking a lot better, but to see these corn and bean crops recover to even 80% of their full potential is now a big call. Still on corn but in China, the weather is expected to improve but may be variable. The southern region, winter wheat area and the far south of the corn growing districts, is expected to see heavy rain. Further north the higher corn producing regions should also see some good rain, but the more marginal production areas are forecast to see less.
The US winter wheat harvest is rated at 24% complete. The better yielding states in the north are yet to strike a blow.